2025 NC Preview
Glebe looks to make it 15 consecutive overall titles after a commanding performance at the East Conference Championships earning 58 of a possible 60 points to defeat Colonel By. In each of Glebe's 5 victories, however, Colonel By was the runner up, twice by as little as 2 points, and will be stalking the Gryphon's every step at the NC Championships. Will the larger fields help the Cougars? Will West Champs Nepean be able to knock the Gryphon's down a peg and will John McCrae's strong Junior and Senior Boy's teams mix up the balance of power?
Novice Girls
Glebe vs. Nepean (Round 1). East vs. West. Glebe won the East with the lowest score of the day, packing all four scorers in the top 10, led by individual favorite, Gerth. With Glebe's 2 - 3, Blondin and Potter, only 15-20 seconds back of Bilcock (who led Nepean to the West Conference Title) at the Rebelles Invitational two weeks ago, it will be tough for anyone to knock them off. Also the depth of the Gryphons will prove difficult as they packed 8 runners in the top 20 at East. Meanwhile East Runner-Up Colonel By had an almost 4 minute gap back to their final tally (Monette), and they only have 4 runners, so they will need a big run from their back end to have a chance to wrest the second spot from the Knights, who had their 4,5 and 6 (Chang-Duffett, Oldfield and O'Connell) 2:30 behind Bilcock.
Gerth of Glebe has been the top NC runner in every race she has run this season, defeating West Champ Ganton (Maplewood) and East Runner-Up Allina twice. These should be your top 3, with Hoogenraad (Longfields) and Dustin (Earl of March) looking to crack a spot on the podium.
NCBlogger's Picks
1. Glebe (39), 2. Nepean (128), 3. Colonel By (143) Darkhorse - Paul Desmarais
1. Gerth (Glebe), 2. Allina (Colonel By), 3. Ganton (Maplewood) Potential Troublemakers - Hoogenraad (Longfields), Dustin (Earl of March)
Junior Girls
Glebe vs. Nepean (Round 2). The Glebe Girls have been undefeated all season against NC competition and were top 8 at OFSAA last year. They've added even more depth to an already packed squad and look to defend their title. With less than a 2:30 gap between #1 McInnes and their 6th Cuylits, they will be difficult to knock off. Vickers, Ravard, Muir and Steffler have all been solid throughout the season giving the Gryphons the depth they need should one, or two have an off day. Nepean has improved much up front with Eccles knocking off last year's OFSAA Bronze medalist Harris (John McCrae) at West, and Fee running strong. Their hopes will rest with well needed big runs from Wallner or Winkel, but it's unlikely it will be enough to catch the Gryphons, but more than enough to hold off John McCrae.
Alabed (Ashbury) moved back to Canada from Egypt and made an immediate impact this season, running to victories at the Gryphon Open, Rebelles Invite and East. Harris and Eccles were only a couple seconds back over the shorter 4k distance at Rebelles and will need to come up with something big take the race from the heavy favorite. It's difficult to see anyone upsetting one of these three, although Gauthier (St Laurent) will certainly take a crack at it.
NCBlogger's Picks
1. Glebe (40), 2 Nepean (58), 3. John McCrae (105) Darkhorse - Colonel By
1. Alabed (Ashbury), 2. Eccles (Nepean), 3. Harris (John McCrae) Potential Troublemakers - Gauthier (St, Laurent), McInnes (Glebe), Fee (Nepean)
Senior Girls
Round 3! They say a bird in hand is worth two in the bush, but in XC the more important question is, a 90 second gap in the middle of the race worth more than a 3:00 minute gap at the front? Big gaps upfront often look impressive, but make small differences in team scores where the back 3-4 runners have much more potential to gobble up points. Nepean and East Runner Up Colonel by will post low stick's with Petrescu-Comnene (Nepean) and Lebel (Colonel By), the latter of which looks to win the race outright. Trouble is, mind the gap. Despite Glebe's top stick van Wesenbeeck likely a few minutes behind these front runners, the 2 minute gap back to their 4th, is much more tasty than the 7 minute gap behind Lebel and the 4 minute gap to Nepean's 4th and 5th. Nepean's gap might be small enough to give Petrescu-Comnene's Knights the needed points to hold off the pesky Gryphons. Colonel By will need a big run from their 4th (Lee) to have any chance of stealing a spot on the O-Show starting line on Nov 1st.
Lebel and Lauter (Franco Ouest) had a fabulous race at the Rebelles Invitational just a few weeks back, with Lebel taking the race by 0.01 seconds. Lauter got the better of Lebel earlier in the season at the Gryphon Open sailing smoothly across the beach to open a comfortable gap. Lebel is not likely to let her have that gap this coming week and it may come down to a kick again, in which Lebel likely has the edge. Neither of these two are likely to be challenged for the top spot, which will likely leave Davies (Immaculata) in the bronze medal position with Petrescu-Comnene and Munro (Hillcrest) hoping to sneak in and steal a spot on the podium.
NCBlogger's Picks
1. Nepean (88), 2. Glebe (96), Colonel By (101) Darkhorses - Ashbury & Merivale
1. Lebel (Colonel By), 2. Lauter (Franco Ouest), 3. Davies (Immaculata), Potential Troublemakers - Petrescu-Comnene (Nepean), Munro (Hillcrest), Carleton (Franco Ouest), Daniels (The Element)
Novice Boys
Glebe had a few aces up their sleeve ahead of Conference, having a couple of runners who had not raced yet this season waiting in the wings. It was enough to counter the dynamic 1-2 duo from Colonel By of Siderius and Lebel, by no small stretch the best 1-2 punch in the city. The have a solid 3rd in Ross, but have to shrink the gap between Abi Chahine and Ross, which was 3 minutes at East, to have any chance. A big run from the back end though could drastically lower their score and prove to cause trouble. West Champs, Paul Desmarais, on the other hand, had less than a 30 second gap between there 1-2 Jean and Knight and their back end duo of Roux and Naud and that gap has been consistent all season. Trouble is their front duo were behind Glebe's front three at the Rebelles Invite, giving Glebe a good cushion as their 2 - 6 gap between Vyvey and and Maxwell-Swinburne is also under a minute. On paper, it's Glebe, Paul Desmarais then Colonel By, but everything depends on Abi Chahine. A big run from him could really turn the tables.
Siderius and Lebel have been 1-2 amongst Novice runners in every race this season. In fact, they beat all the 2010s, except Charbot, at the Gryphon Open and Rebelles Invitational to boot. No one is touching them this week, unless Siderius has more trouble staying on course....again. West Champ Claydon-St. John (John McCrae) outkicked Taft (AY Jackson) at West and was a comfortable 15 seconds ahead of Glebe's Schreiner at both the Gryphon Open and the Rebelles Invitational. These are likely your top 5 with Mitchell (Hillcrest) and Ross (Colonel By) trying to break things up.
NCBlogger's Picks
1. Glebe (68), 2. Paul Desmarias (78), 3. Colonel By (80)
1. Siderius (Colonel By), 2. Lebel (Colonel By), 3. Claydon-St.John (John McCrae) Potential Troublemakers - Taft (AY Jackson), Schreiner (Glebe), Mitchell (Hillcrest)
Junior Boys
Immaculata has always felt jilted by our predictions. We did, after all, predict them to come 2nd to Louis Riel in 2022, and they took it personally. They eked out a 3 point victory over Louis at NC's then went on to win the OFSAA title at Dagmar. I've got a soft spot for people who trash-talk with their feet. The Saints tied with Glebe at East this year but got the nod with the higher 4th place finisher Roseman (18th) to Glebe's Behrend (20th). Mac also brought up their top Novice runner, Roseman to bolster their chances. The 25 second gap between the two was similar at the Grpyhon Open and only slightly smaller at the Rebelles Invitaional. With Glebe's Hurst hunting for a medal spot, Immaculata hopes rest on Scullion keeping the gap, and the number of scorers, between himself and Hurst (over a minute at East and 5 places) as small as possible, while Glebe's Pilkington and Behrend try to catch Mac's Cronkwright and Roseman. Both teams boast a small gap with less than 50 seconds for Mac 1 - 4 and a minute for Glebe's 2 - 5. The nod goes to Glebe on depth as Mac's 5th is a good piece back, but Mac's tendancy to run well when it matters makes them top dogs. West Champs John McCrae could spoil the party for one of these two but the 3 minute gap between Yakimchuck and Roeste will likely be too much to overcome. Last year's Champs, Canterbury also might have something to say with the strongest 1-2 punch in the Sineus twins, Onyx and Zain, but that 3 minute plus gap back to 4th needs to be smaller.
West Champ Charbot (St. FX) has won each and every race this season by comfortable margins, his closest pursuer being Hurst, by 15 seconds over 4k at the Rebelles Invitational. He will likely run unchallenged to victory. His closest pursuers will likley be Hurst and Sineus, while Saikaly (Colonel By) and Yakimchuck fight for 4th and 5th.
NCBlogger's Picks
1. Immaculata (80), 2. Glebe (82), 3. Canterbury (100) Darkhorses - John McCrae, Franco Cite
1. Charbot (St. FX), 2. Hurst (Glebe), 3. O. Sineus (Canterbury) Potential Troublemakers - Yakimchuck (John McCrae), Saikaly (Colonel By), Z. Sineus (Canterbury)
Senior Boys
The more experienced the athletes, the more exciting the racing and that certainly holds true with the Senior Boy's race. Just as the Senior Girl's race will be a tight affair, the Senior Boy's race promises a close finish and a very tight four way team battle.
Glebe were unlikely East Champs, having placed 4th at the Rebelles Invitational, but a 30 second 1 - 4 gap certainly puts them in the mix to win at the NC Champs. Rebelles Champs Louis Riel played it cool at East with their 1 & 3, Fortier and Young, placing in the 80's. Had they finished relatively close to where they finished at Rebelles it would have placed them right alongside Glebe and Colonel By. The Cougars had a strong showing, only two points back of Glebe, led by East Champ Siderius but will need big runs from their back duo of Ross and Walker to beat either of these two. West Champs John McCrae will also be in the mix. They ran to a very comfortable victory at West despite their #2 man Yakimchuck struggling over the 2nd half of the race. They will need him to run at his best if they hope to crack the top 3. The two OFSAA spots will certainly come from two of these four teams.
Mortimer (Hillcrest) has raced sparingly this year. Skipping the Gryphon Open to run with the University athletes at Capital XC, Mortimer turned in a solid 7th placefinish against much older competition. Siderius (Colonel By) on the other hand has raced more often, twice on the NC course, and won both times over the trails at Green's Creek outkicking Mortimer in the latest race. He looks to match his brother's victory in the Novice race with a title of his own. Outside of these two, only the Louis duo of Fortier and Rebane have a chance of staying close, giving the East a likely podium sweep, although West Champ Charlebois (Sacred Heart) has raced only once this year, outkicking McKercher (John McCrae) and Recoskie (St. Joseph) at West.
NCBlogger's Picks
1. Colonel By (68), 2. Glebe (70), 3. Louis Riel (73) Not a Darkhorse - John McCrae (77)
1. Siderius (Colonel By), 2. Mortimer (Hillcrest), 3. Fortier (Louis Riel) Potential Troublemakers - Rebane (Louis Riel), Charlebois (Sacred Heart)
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