Most of the big names came through at the Conference Championships, but there were a few surprises and the stage is now set for the National Capital Championships as athletes vie for a spot on the start line the first week of November at Dagmar Ski Resort in Uxbridge, ON. There are no grade 9 - 11 students that have had the chance to run an OFSAA XC race, so there will be high hopes and dashed dreams over the trails at Mooney's Bay this coming Thursday. There are some secure spots, but as we know, in sport, nothing is ever guaranteed until the race is over, which is why they don't hand out awards until the athletes have crossed the line.
Novice Girls
Whether due to injury, illness, or just playing it cool, Nepean had a couple of their top scorers well back at Conference, but they still come in as heavy favorites. Nepean's top three scorers, Pender, Hale and Petrescue-Commene have all taken turns beating each other this season. With Voros not far back they have a solid hold on the first spot, despite being beaten by South Carleton at West.
The second spot is where things get real interesting. West runner up South Carleton, East Champs Glebe and runner up Colonel By will be very close. Glebe has a little more wiggle room with a low score in potential podium threat Van Wesenbeeck, but this race will all come down to the back end, runners three and four, where big swings in points are possible. Glebe needs their Madeleines (Leschinsky and Beauregard) to keep ahead of South's Adams and Nemchin to help them seal the deal and while Colonel By was ahead of Glebe at the halfway point at East, they will need to run a strong second half to wrest the spot away from either of these two teams.
Individually, East Champ Davies (Immaculata) and West Champ Lofthouse (St. Mark) have been undefeated against Novice competitors this season, but only one will walk away next week with that title. Davies was the top '08 at Capital XC, while Lofthouse won the North Dundas Invite ahead of the Conference Meets. Lofthouse held off Pender to win the West, but Pender was well behind East runner-up Buchanan (Franco-Cite) at the Louis Riel Invite, who in turn was beat by Pender's teammate Petrescue-Commene. Looks to be a real competitive race, as these girls have been been up and down all seasons. With 2 of the top 6 likely on a qualifying team that will mean a 7th place finish might be enough to punch a ticket to Uxbridge. Expect Hutt (DeLaSalle), Leblanc (St. Pius) and Lefaivre (Louis) to fight it out for that spot.
NC Bloggers Picks
Teams - 1. Nepean (32), 2. Glebe (100), 3. South (110)
Individuals - 1. Davies (Immaculata), 2. Lofthouse (St. Mark), 3. Buchanan (Franco Cite)
Junior Girls
Nepean will strive to make it 2-for-2 in the Girl's races as the defending Novice Girl's Champs come in as favorites to defend their title, this time as Juniors. Without a top threat, Nepean's top runner Barber will have to run well to crack the top 10, but they will likely pack all four scorers within 45 seconds. The tight bunching will reward them with a low team score. Similar to the Novice Girls, that second qualifying spot will be a tight battle between three teams, which could be separated by as few as 5 or 6 points. It's the back end, that all important fourth runner, that will make the difference for West Runner-Up St. Mark, East Champs Franco-Cite and John McCrae. Franco will have the low stick in Knight, while McCrae will counter with Jennings. St. Mark, like Nepean will not likely have a single point counter, but will pack much tighter than Franco or McCrae. McCrae and Franco, on the other hand, have the greatest potential to lower their score if they can get a big run from their fourth runners, Rodriguez and Sabha.
Chiumera (St. Pius) has yet to be beaten against NC Competition and that streak will likely extend through this year. Speaking of streaks, it will be a Streek (Peak Centre) that is likely to be Chiumera's closest pursuer, with Streek finishing only 11 seconds behind at Capital XC. East Champ Johnston-Zemek (Ashbury) was a minute adrift at Capital XC which should be more than enough to secure bronze. Since there are no teams likely to have an individual in the top 5 it will be a clearer picture for these girls. Place top 5, or you don't go. Jeffrey (St. FX) and Villeneuve (Paul Desmarais) are most likely to take those spots, although Knight (Franco Cite) will be in the hunt, although she has a second chance with her Faucons teammates.
NC Blogger's Picks:
Teams - 1. Nepean (65), 2. St. Mark (115), 3. Franco-Cite / John McCrae (120)
Individuals - 1. Chiumera (St. Pius), 2. Streek (Peak Centre), 3. Johnston-Zemek (Ashbury)
Senior Girls
While there is no such thing as a sure, thing, oddly enough, the more mature the athletes get, the more predictable their behaviour (and results) become. Go figure. The Glebe Senior Girls will look to make it 9 consecutive years holding the Senior Girl's crown. The Gryphons scored a paltry 14 points, placing 6 in the top 8 at East and scored even less, 13, in winning the Capital XC Challenge earlier this year. Podium threat Alexander, leads a cast of Gryphons about a minute behind her with Gormley, Trott, McColgan and Waddington that will likely pack within 30-45 seconds. Meanwhile, West Champs Merivale looks to have a solid hold on the second qualifying spot, packing all four scorers tightly to win the West by almost 50 points. Something drastic will have to happen for one of these two teams to be upset.
Both Individual Conference Champs laced up the spikes for the first time this fall at Conference and showed that a lack of racing does not mean a lack of fitness. Defending NCSSAA and Athletics Ontario U18 XC Champion Van Brabant (Earl of March) looked very comfortable cruising to a 1 minute victory over defending NC Junior Girls Champ Gionnatti (Holy Trinity) in the West, while Baggley (Gloucester) opened up a gap early and maintained the gap throughout, running to a 25 second victory over last year's Junior Girls runner-up Alexander (Glebe). With only Alexander likely to have a qualifying team, the next spots likely belong to Sarai (West Carleton) and Soler (Longfields), with Hertz (John McCrae) on the outside, looking in, needing a big run to crack the top 5 individuals.
NC Blogger's Picks:
Teams - 1. Glebe (28), 2 - Merivale (65), 3 Longfields (120)
Individuals - 1. Van Brabant (Earl of March), 2. Baggley (Gloucester), Gionnatti (Holy Trinity)
Novice Boys
The Colonel By Novice Boys have the upfront talent and the depth to come in as heavy favorites to win the NC title. They won the XCookie Open race with 3 novice scorers and Turkey Trot before steamrolling to victory at East with a mere 20 points, despite one of their top dogs rolling an ankle and taking it easy all the way. Even without one or two of their low scorers, their depth will carry the day. Second will be a close battle between West Champs Nepean and East runner up Glebe. Expect Nepean's top 2, Moons and Hawkes to edge out Glebe's top 2, O'Hare and Battou-Achab, and hold a slight advantage, but once again, it's the back end that often carries the day. Whomever has the better races between Glebe's Johnston / Kurien and Nepean's Fee / Frank will likely come out victorious, with many more points available in the latter stages of the race. Johnston and Fee have taken turns defeating each other this season, with Fee 20 seconds up at Louis, while Johnston held a 12 second advantage at the Turkey Trot. Kurien has always got the better of Frank by 30 and 10 seconds respectively at the same races. Outside these two teams only John McCrae has a chance of cracking the top 2. There is little they can do to improve upfront, likely placing two in the top 6, McKercher and Yakimuch, but if Kydd can come up with the race of his season, even running 30-40 seconds faster could mean 20 - 30 points to help his teams chances.
Colonel By's Siderus and Walker could go 1-2 for the Cougars, but Mortimer (Hillcrest) will likely have something to say about it. Siderus bested his teammate by 15 and 18 seconds in their two early races, and Mortimer by 15 at East, so it will be very tight. Will Walker's ankle be good to go? After them the duo's of Moons / Hawkes (Nepean) and McKercher / Yakimuch (John McCrae) will duke it out. With four of the top 7 likely on a qualifying team, and the next Glebe's O'Hare before another couple Cougars in Ross / Ghie a top 11 spot might be enough to earn a spot on the OFSAA start line. Zegers (Mer Bleue) and Uren (St. FX) might be able to sneak a spot depending on how the team battle unfolds.
NC Blogger's Picks:
Teams - 1. Colonel By (25), 2 Glebe (72), 3. Nepean (78)
Individuals - 1. Siderus (Colonel By), 2. Mortimer (Hillcrest), 3. Walker (Colonel By)
Junior Boys
Defending Novice Champs Immaculata looked to be the team to beat heading into the Conference Meets, but Louis Riel had a surprise in store for them. Not running a full team until their own Invitational, a week ahead of Conference, kept their secret weapon hidden. They placed three scorers, ahead of Mac's second runner, lead by individual champion Cova. While Mac got all four scorers in ahead of the Rebelles, Plessas was only 12 seconds behind Mac's 4th Meehan, which sealed the deal. Louis' front end is stronger, so as long as Plessas is able to keep Meehan or Padoin-Castillo in sight, it should be enough to seal the deal. There is no other teams with the depth to seriously challenge either of these two teams, with Glebe and John McCrae likely a good chunk back battling it out for the bronze.
Taler (Glebe) has had quite the season winning the Trinity Invitational in Port Hope before losing a tight battle with the defending OFSAA 800 & 1500m Champ Kenny at Capital XC. Taler, however, returned the favor the following week making a strong move early to defeat Kenny by 40 seconds at the Turkey Trot. At East, Taler, Cova and Heins stayed tightly bunched for most of the race before Cova kicked away to victory. Will Taler try the same tactic again to turn the tables on Cova, by making a move early? Heins looks to have a solid lock on the bronze medal position ahead of Mac's Smith. The final OFSAA spots should belong to Ghozani (Lisgar), Johnston-Zemek (Ashbury) and West Champ (Sankey) with Goold (SRB) looking to sneak in for one of those coveted spots.
NC Blogger's Picks:
Teams - 1. Louis (44), 2. Immaculata (46), 3. Glebe (75)
Individuals - 1. Cova (Louis Riel), 2. Taler (Glebe), 3. Heins (Glebe)
Senior Boys
Like their Senior Girl's, the Glebe Senior Boys have not known the taste of defeat at the NC Championships since 2012, when they finished tied for first with Nepean, but lost on the tiebreaker (higher finishing 4th place runner). They certainly expect to find themselves on top again this year. With the best 1 - 2 punch in the city, Strachan and Melinz-Dupuis will strive to repeat what they did as Junior's and finish first and second. Behind them they've got a plenty of depth to back them up, having placed 6 runners in the top 15 at East. West Champs Bell look to have a solid lock on second place behind West Champ Kushner. Mother Teresa, Nepean, Colonel By and Immaculata will have a tightly contested battle for third, but the top two teams have a rather large cushion to protect themselves.
The Glebe duo of Strachan and Melinz-Dupuis looked very comfortable having been the top 2 NC runners at every race so far this season. Behind them Thanksgiving weekend marathoner's (yes you heard that right) Padoin-Castillo (Immaculata) and McDaniel (Ashbury) will try to hold off Bell's Kushner. Another week might help the legs recover a little more, but Kushner had plenty in the tank left at West as he kicked away from OFSAA 400m Champion Sanders (Mother Teresa). That's quite the range Mr. Sanders. With 4 of the top 6 likely to be on a qualifying team, and Glebe's Hurley, who could be the next across the line, a top 10 finish might make the dance. Belan (Canterbury), Lacasse (Colonel By) and Del Rio (St. Joseph) all have a realistic chance of nabbing those final two spots.
NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1. Glebe (29), Bell (85), 3. Mother Teresa (130)
Individuals - 1. Strachan (Glebe), 2. Melinz-Dupuis (Glebe), 3. Padoin-Castillo (Immaculata)
Best of luck to all next week at Mooney's Bay.
