Apologies for letting the blog slide again this season. I am having difficulty keeping up, but once again we are back for the NCSSAA Preview! All pre-season results and results from the Conference Meets can be found on the Glebe XC site. The Conference Meets brought beautiful weather and great racing conditions and some very impressive performances. While there are a few races that look very predictable, there also look to be some very tight battles in the quest for teams to earn a spot on the OFSAA dance floor on Nov 4th in Etobicoke.
Novice Girls
Laila Lebel (Colonel By) has looked very strong all season. Besting all Novice competition at the Turkey Trot, Gryphon Open and the East. Her only defeat came at the hands of two Juniors at the Capital XC where she still reached the podium racing against grade 10s. Dahlia Loretti (Pierre Savard) had a very impressive victory at the Rebelles Invitational, beating all the Juniors but was well back at West. Is she just lurking in the weeds or was she sick? Just running to finish? East runner-up Daniels (The Element) and West Champ Cesario (St. Pius X), who along with Lebel finished 1-2-3 at the Gryphon Open, could repeat the performance at NC's unless Loretti was holding back and is ready to fire. With only Lebel out of the top 5 expected to qualify on a team, every spot will matter. McGregor (Immaculata), Arabackyj (De La Salle), Crawlton (Franco Ouest) and Blackadder (South Carleton) should duke it out for the final 3 spots.
Lebel looks to lead her Cougar teammates to victory again at NC's but Nepean's tight packed top 3 of Hume, Chadwick and Renfroe will be very tough to beat. While not likely have a single counter in the top 10, a 30 second 1 - 3 gap with a 4th, Hutchens, less than a minute back, Nepean should group very well. Lebel should provide a low stick for Colonel By, but with a 2:30 gap back to their next scorer Amberg, the Cougars will have their work cut out for them. The Cougars need to keep their back end as close as possible to Hutchens if they hope to upset the Knights. Both West runner-up Earl of March and East runner-up Garneau will have to improve massively if they hope to steal a spot from the top ranked teams.
NC Blogger Picks
Teams: 1. Nepean (72), 2. Colonel By (84), 3. Garneau (108)
Individuals: 1. Lebel (Colonel By), 2. Dahlia (Pierre Savard), 3. Daniels (The Element),
Novice Boys
West Champ Deveer (Merivale) and East Champ Skelton (Immaculata) have yet to lock horns this year and that should make for an exciting show down at Green's Creek this coming Thursday. Deveer won the Gryphon Open a week ahead of the West, besting Skelton's teammate, Lanca, by the same margin Skelton beat him in winning the East. While Skelton had a rather large cushion, Deveer's pursuers were considerably closer as the West looked to be the deeper of the two fields. Bonilla (Holy Trinity) should round out the top 3, but Lanca, Lodha (Ashbury), Rose Royo (St. FX), Van Brabant (Earl of March) and Elmasry (John McCrae) can't be counted out. With Deveer, Skelton and Lanca on top 2 contending teams, a top 8 finish could earn a spot on the OFSAA starting line.
Merivale, Immaculata and Earl of March all match up very well and the two NC reps should come from these schools. Merivale is most vulnerable in the larger NC field as the gap between Deveer and his teammates is over a minute and a half, while the Earl has a tight packed top 2 in Van Brabant and Zabarah (4 seconds at West) and then another two relatively close Chen and Preuss just over a minute back. While the gap between Chen and Preuss was small, there were 7 places between them at West. Preuss needs to close that gap in order to gain the valuable points needed to upset the Mauraders, Immaculata will counter with Skelton and Lanca, and although the gap is a little bigger between the two, there won't be many scorers between them. Rioux and Smith crossed the line together and only finished a minute back, giving Immaculata the tightest grouping of the three teams.
NC Blogger's Picks
Teams: 1. Immaculata (70), 2. Merivale (85), Earl of March (90)
Individuals: 1. Deveer (Merivale), 2. Skelton (Immaculata), 3. Bonilla (Holy Trinity)
Junior Girls
There were a few girls who spent some time in the summer, honing their speed on the track and it shows! Both Lauter (Franco Ouest) and Van Wesenbeeck (Glebe) missed the podium last year at NC's but look to be fighting for the top spot this year. Both girls had impressive victories at their conference meets. Lauter won the Captial XC and was the top Junior at the Rebelles Invitational, while Van Wesenbeeck captured the Gryphon Open and was runner-up at the Turkey Trot. Lefavire (Louis Riel) and Allibon (John McCrae) also look to be contending for top 5 spots but were outside the top 10 last year. Defending NC Champ Davies (Immaculata) continues to look strong and was only 2 seconds back of Lauter at Captial XC and 20 seconds back of Van Wesenbeeck on two occasions this fall (West and Gryphon Open). Behind these 5 we have a couple of Knights (Petrescue-Commene and Forestier) who were part of Nepean's OFSAA Silver Medalist Novice team last year, so a top 10 finish might put you in the conversation for the O-Show in November. Look for Murphy (Pierre Savard), Taft (AY Jackson) and Bergevin Hemsing (De La Salle) to fight for those last individual spots.
OFSAA Silver Medalists Nepean packed well again at West and look to be heavy favorites coming into the NC Meet. With only 90 seconds separating 1 - 4, they should easily defend their title and punch their ticket. Last's years runner-up Glebe looks to hold on to the second spot. With individual favorite Van Wesenbeeck, they have four more potential scorers packing within 30 seconds, but they will be far enough back to make it interesting. If John McCrae can get a big run from Rockburne, to close the gap on her teammates, John McCrae could steal the spot.
NC Blogger's Picks
Teams: 1. Nepean (38), 2. Glebe (82), 3. John McCrae (91)
Individuals: 1. Van Wesenbeeck (Glebe), 2. Lauter (Franco Ouest), 3. Davies (Immaculata)
Junior Boys
Look for a repeat of the East Conference finish with Mortimer (Hillcrest), Siderius (Colonel By) and Walker (Colonel By). The boys were 1-2-3 as Novice last year as well, but expect Mortimer to turn his gold to silver this year as he heads to the start line undefeated this season, including two close victories over Siderius. Behind this trio are a several pairs of runners challenging for team titles, with McKercher / Yakimuch (John McCrae), Gorall / James Rebane (Louis Riel) and Bou /O'Hare (Glebe). The latter are unlikely to upset the individual order of things, but could make things messy in the team race. Depending on the how the team battle shakes out, Lee (Mother Teresa), Recoskie (St. Joseph), Gimby (South Carleton), McIntyre (West Carleton), and Chelgoum (Gisele Lalonde) could be in the mix for a top 5 individual finish.
The team battle however looks anything but decided. Colonel By are the OFSAA Silver Medalists from 2022, but only return with the impressive 1-2 punch of Siderius and Walker. After that, things drop off with almost a 3 minute gap back to their 4th at East Bordovsky. All four teams have close 1 -2 finishers before a gap back to 3 - 4. West Champs John McCrae pack them the closest, with only 90 seconds between 1 - 4 and had the lowest team score of the day at West tallying only 23 points. Lead by West Champ McKercher and runner-up Yakimuch, they will spot the front running Cougar's and Rebelles a few spots, but there are so many more points be be gained on the back end. They could find themselves heading to Etobicoke as NC Champs. Glebe and Louis Riel were only 3 points apart at East behind Colonel By, but they both need big runs to catch John McCrae. Glebe's back end Johnston and Eaton need to be ahead of McCrae's Lin and Harris, but that is a big ask. Louis' fate rests in their 4th, Backman who was 4 minutes behind at East. He'll need to close that gap for the Rebelles to have a chance.
NC Blogger's Picks
Team: 1. Colonel By (48), 2. John McCrae (65), 3. Louis Riel (70)
Individuals: 1. Mortimer (Hillcrest), 2. Siderius (Colonel By), 3. Walker (Colonel By)
Senior Girls
Chiumera (St. Pius X) has not lost an NC competition in her XC career and she looks to carry on with that in 2023. Her only serious threat will come from East Champ Alexander (Glebe), whose only previous race was a 5th place finish at McQuaid in Rochester, NY. Gianotti (Holy Trinity) has been Chiumera's closest pursuer with only 10 seconds separating the two at Capital XC, but that grew to 30 seconds at West. The Hornet's Nest course favors athletes that can break away before the twisty forest loop, but can also be dreadfully cruel to athletes who go out too hard. Alexander should be able to close on Chiumera down the stretch, but if the gap is too big coming out of the woods, it'll be over. Streek (Peak), Jeffrey (St. FX), Villeneuve (Paul Desmarais) and K-J-Z (Ashbury), and Knight (Franco) will duke it out for the last spots on the OFSAA start line. With only Alexander and Villeneuve likely on a team, it's unlikely any others will be able to wrest a spot away for a ticket to OFSAA.
Glebe lost 4 of 5 from their OFSAA Silver Medalist Senior team last year, but return their #1 Alexander, who will likely lead the team to victory over the Green's Creek Trails. West Champs Paul Desmarais looks to have a solid hold on spot number 2, but West runner-up John McCrae and East runner-up Ashbury, who also won the Rebelles Invite on the Championship course will look to upset the front running favorites as all teams have rather large gaps between their top runners and their 4th. The 3rd and fourth runners, Waddington / Sutherland (Glebe), Di Lello / Olszewski (Paul Desmarais), McKenna / McQuinn (John McCrae) and Turner / Bruce (Ashbury) hold the keys to their team's success.
NC Blogger's Picks
Teams: 1. Glebe (65), 2. Paul Desmarais (105), 3. John McCrae (132)
Individuals: 1. Chiumera (St. Pius X), 2. Alexander (Glebe), 3. Gianotti (Holy Trinity)
Senior Boys
Cova (Louis Riel) is on a mission. Since his defeat by Taler (Glebe) at NC and OFSAA last year, Cova has not lost to anyone from the NC region. Taler is the defending OFSAA Junior Boys Champ and the only one with a chance of upsetting either one of these two is Strachan (Glebe). Glebe may pack 4 in the top 6 with Heins and Melinz-Dupuis only broken up by Smith (Immaculata). With Glebe almost assuredly winning the team title, and Immaculata, Louis, Garneau and West Champs Borden all fighting for the second team spot, 6 of the top 10 could qualify on teams, making a top 10 finish enough grab a spot on the OFSAA starting line. Smith, Cohen (Louis Riel), Max Wilson (Woodroffe), Barrett Goold (Sir Robert Borden) and Padoin-Castillo will fight for those spots.
Glebe went 2-4-5-6 at East with only 0.8 seconds separating their 1 - 4. With Taler and Heins 1 - 3 in the Junior Boys race at OFSAA last year, they certainly have what it takes to not only win the NC Title, but challenge for the top of the podium at OFSAA. The battle for the second qualifying spot will be very interesting. Despite not having a runner in the top 10 at East, Garneau only finished one point behind Louis Riel. The Junior Boys OFSAA Champion Immaculata Boys team found the step up to Senior a monumental task as they finish 4th at East, but only 7 points out of second. We found out last year though that the Immaculata Boys show up when it counts, as they came into cities last year having been beaten by Louis only to win Cities and go on to OFSAA gold. West Champs Borden are similar to Garneau in that they will not have a top threat, but will try to mix things up. Louis has the up front talent, but will need a big run from Abou-Arraj if they hope to finish runner-up to Glebe again. Once again, the fate of all four teams rest with their 4th.
NC Blogger's Picks
Team: 1. Glebe (15), 2. Borden (143), 3.Louis Riel (145)
Individuals: Cova 1. (Louis Riel), 2. Taler (Glebe), 3. Strachan (Glebe)
Best of luck to all NC Athletes!
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