NC Preview v.2019

The Conference Meets are over (finally) and athletes are primed and ready to vie for entry to the 2019 OFSAA XC Championships the first weekend of November.  The top 2 teams in each race, plus the next five individuals not on a qualifying team will earn a spot on the start line at Kivi Park in Sudbury.  With the East Conference Meet being delayed until Oct 21st, not a lot of teams / individuals gave it their all on Monday, ensuring they will be rested for Thursday, but the meet gave us a good picture of how dominant some of the teams will be.

Novice Girls

The Glebe Novice Girls have only raced twice as a team this season but have bested all their competition, winning the Gryphon Open handily over West Champs Pius X, even without their top gun in the line-up.  They will head to the start line at the Nest as heavy favorites, with both upfront talent in Gormley and Wojtyk, who could both land on the podium, and a solid pack of four not far behind.  West Champs Pius X have bested all their rivals, except the Gryphons in their two outings this fall and the second OFSAA qualifying spot is theirs to lose. While they will not have a real low stick in the tally, a 43 second spread 1 - 4 should be enough to keep them low enough to earn runner up honours.

Individually, the top two have not faced each other yet this season so we could see the best of both brought to the forefront.  Gormley (Glebe) is undefeated against NC Novice competition, beating all but one of the Juniors (Murchison) at the Capital XC Challenge.  Hegan (Nepean) is in the same boat, outkicking Wojtyk (Glebe) to win the Gryphon Open by a second, and running to a slightly more comfortable 7 second victory over Brabant (Earl of March) at West.  With Gormley and Wojtyk likely to qualify as part of a team, that leaves the individual spots up to 7 deep.  Expect Lortie (Beatrice Desloges), Saravanamuttoo (Colonel By), Brayman (Osgoode), Benz (St. Joseph) and Young (Mother Teresa) to fight it out for those spots and a ticket to the big dance.

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1. Glebe (35), 2. St. Pius X (83), 3. Nepean (91)
Individuals - 1. Gormley (Glebe), 2. Hegan (Nepean), 3. Wojtyk (Glebe)

Novice Boys

Mother Teresa and John McCrae had a very tight neck and neck battle at West, with each scorer finishing within 1-3 places of his counterpart. Mother Teresa eeked out a 1 point victory.  Expect them to do battle again at the Nest, but this time, fighting it out for the second OFSAA qualifying spot.  The top spot should go to Colonel By who ran to a massive victory at East, putting all four scores in front of every other teams second.  The small spread between their 1 - 4 runners will make beating them a tall order.   The only other teams that have a shot at striking for second would be Paul Desmarais and South Carleton who were both within range of Mother Teresa and John McCrae at West.  The fate of these teams all rest with the 3 - 4 runners.  Whoever can get the biggest runs from their back end will win the all expenses paid (by Bank of Mom & Dad) trip to the Big Nickel.

West Champ Legare (John McCrae) has bested all NC competitors this year and East Champ Vrankovic (Immaculata) has been the only one that has been within 10 seconds (at the Capital XC Challenge) of him all year.  Kennedy (Mother Teresa) and Loganathan (Colonel By) will fight it out for the remaining spot on the podium.  Raz (West Carleton), Wilson (Woodroffe), Del Rio Reategui (St. Joseph) from the West will duke it out with Gillian (Ashbury) and Fortin (Franco Cite) from the East for the remaining spots on the Kivi Park start line.  Lacasse (Colonel By) might break things up, but he will almost assuredly be heading to Sudbury with his Cougar teammates.

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1. Colonel By (44), 2. Mother Teresa (105), 3. John McCrae (107)
Individuals - 1. Legare (John McCrae), 2. Vrankovic (Immaculata), 3. Kennedy (Mother Teresa)

Junior Girls

Last year, Colonel By came into the NCSSAA Championships as favorites, but unfortunately, one of their top runners failed to show up on race day and cost the Cougars valuable points and they placed 3rd, missing the final qualifying spot.  Never forget - XC is a team sport!  Colonel By hopes to put that in the past on a course much closer to home.  The Cougars were utterly dominant at the East meet, sweeping the podium, with their fourth scorer placing 5th.  With just over 1 minute between their first and fourth, the Cougars have the the depth and talent to challenge the defending Champions Glebe even without a solid individual threat upfront.  Glebe is led by individual favorite Cara MacDonald (Glebe), and then a tight pack of 4 runners, who can take turns stepping up and delivering on race day.  The only team with a chance of upsetting the natural order of things is West Champs John McCrae.  Ivay (John McCrae) will do her part to throw in a low score, but her teammates will need to step up and track the Cougar and Gryphon girls closely if they hope to knock either team off the bus.

There are no undefeated athletes heading to NC's this year as everyone has taken a turn at besting each other so far.  Defending Champion MacDonald gets the nod based on a strong run at Turkey Trot, even though both May (Immaculata) and Murchison (Mother Teresa) got the best of her at the Capital XC Challenge.  She is also the OFSAA Novice Silver Medalist from 2018, so she is a big game hunter, and shows up when it really matters.  Patience will certainly play a role as whomever has taken the lead early in races tends to get tracked down in the later stages.  This might make the race a little tighter upfront, for a while at least.  With only MacDonald likely to qualify on a team, three more sports are up for grabs and the favorites for those spots are Bradley (Longfields-Davidson), McCulligh (West Carleton), Porter (Franco Cite) and Ivay.  If John McCrae ends up unseating Glebe or Colonel By, then MacDonald, or teammates Saravanamutto and Ginther (Colonel By) will have to fight each other for the final spot.

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1.  Glebe (42), 2. Colonel By (54), 3. John McCrae (71)
Individuals - 1. MacDonald (Glebe), 2. Murchison (Mother Teresa), 3. May (Immaculata)

Junior Boys

The Junior Boys race will be the final example of how you can win as a team.  Just like the Pius X  and Colonel By girls, the Gryphons do not have an individual threat for the podium, or perhaps even a top 5 spot, so it may be easy to overlook the them, but they will pack very tightly with as many as 6 or 7 runners within 45 seconds of each other.  While other teams may have a very low stick to score, no one can match the Gryphons for depth.  West Champs Nepean and West Runner Up Sir Robert Borden have similar teams, each with an individual podium threat (Porter - Borden and Woodford - Nepean) with a tight bunch for their next three scorers.  The Knights advantage is that they have 6 very tightly bunched, whereas the Bengals only have the three.  The only team with an outside shot at besting these two for the second spot would be John McCrae, led by Sendybyl and Brooks (the best 1-2 combo next to Glebe), but will need big runs from their back two to knock off Borden or Nepean.

2018 OFSAA Medalist Meredith (De La Salle) is the class of the field.  He's got the strength and the speed to finish off anyone who manages to stay with him long enough, although he has raced sparingly this fall.  His opponents best bet is to catch him rusty, but it's unlikely.  In his one outing earlier this season he put 13 seconds into West Champ Porter over 4k on the fields of the Nest.  With only Porter or Woodford likely to be on a qualifying team, it will likely take a top 6 finish to earn one of the 5 individual qualifying spots.  The remaining three spots will likey go to Niedre (South Carleton), Sendybyl and either East Champ Williams (Garneau) or Sikka (St. Paul).

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams-  1. Glebe (42), 2. Nepean (60), 3. Borden (64)
Individuals - 1. Meredith (De La Salle), 2. Porter (Sir Robert Borden), 3. Niedre (South Carleton)

The Glebe Senior Girls have been on and around the podium at OFSAA for the past several years, earning bronze in 2018 and 2016 and gold in 2015 and 2014.  They hope to find themselves in the hunt again this year and need to put a good one together at NC's to set them off on the right foot.  The Gryphons started the year off with a win at the prestigious Trinity Invitational in Port Hope, putting all four scorers in the top 7.  At their Gryphon Open they took the top two spots with A and B teams, went 3 - 6 at the Capital XC Challenge  and then posted the lowest score of any team at the Turkey Trot before Conference Week rolled around.  They doubled up on their closest rival, Lisgar, at the Capital XC Challenge and Lisgar appears to have a strong hold on the second qualifying spot led by individual favorite Betty.  Only West Champs Nepean have a shot and upsetting Lisgar or Glebe and it's a long shot at best, but the Knights will do their best to make it interesting on Thursday.

Although Newlove (St. Peter) got the best of  Betty at Conference, Betty beat Newlove at the Capital XC Challenge.  The rubber match won't mean too much as they will likely both get another shot at each other at OFSAA.  In her only race against the two, Pellerin (St. FX) pulled out very early after rolling her ankle, so the three of them together should put on a good show for the fans at the Nest on Thursday.  I'll go with Betty - Pellerin - Newlove as that is the way they finished last year and they all look to be in similar form this year.  After this front trio, expect a slew of Gryphons, which along with Betty could mean a top 10 spot might be enough for a trip to the Big Nickel.  The Gryphon order changes from race to race, but expect Gardiner, Bialowas, Lyons and Heffernan-Wilker to be in the mix followed by Semeniuk (Pius X) and Tyman (Mother Teresa) with Roy (Louis Riel), Tremblay (Beatrice Desloges), Thebaud (Canterbury) and Gruson (Nepean) fighting it out for that last spot.

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams -  1. Glebe (24), 2. Lisgar (49), 3. Nepean (63)
Individuals - 1. Betty (Lisgar), 2. Pellerin (St. FX), 3. Newlove (St. Peter)

Senior Boys

It's not often you get a team with three boys capable of running 9:10 or better over 3,000m on the same high school XC team, but that is exactly what Glebe has ready to tow the line at the Nest.  Sanger, Saravanamutto and Cino have run 9:10 or better (with Sanger running 8:50).  Track times don't always translate to XC success, but when you consider these three athletes punch above their weight in XC compared to the track, things are looking up.  Behind these three are a host of Gryphons that, along with Cino, brought home Junior Boys gold at OFSAA last year which gives you  a strong recipe for success and leaves the rest fighting for that second spot.  This may be a tight,  battle between Ridgemont (who has placed 2nd to the Gryphons for the last three consecutive years) and West Champs Longfields-Davidson who posted very similar scores at their respective Conference Meets.  Ridgemont has the upfront talent and with three likely ahead of Longfield's #2 man, they should carry the day.

They call him Fast.  Joe Fast.  And that he is.  In his final XC race in the NCSSAA Fast comes in as the heavy favorite.  Behind him, things are fairly predictable as we can expect Sanger in second with 2018 Junior Champ Allan (Ashbury), Saravanamutto and Cino battling for the bronze.  With four of these boys likely on qualifying teams (and Omar Ali not far behind) anything in the top 10 might earn you a dance ticket.  West Champ Frost (AY Jackson), runner-up Roy, Porter (Sir Robert Borden), Woodford (Nepean) and Demers (Mother Teresa) will vie for those positions.

NC Blogger's Picks
Teams - 1. Glebe (26), 2. Ridgemont (54), 3. Longfields (86)
Individuals - 1. Fast (Ridgemont), 2. Sanger (Glebe), 3. Saravanamuttoo (Glebe)

Best of luck to all Harriers and if I've left you off this list, please get out there on the trails Thursday and make me look bad!