NC Preview

The preparations are done.  Athletes are ready to test themselves against their peers and to vie for the right to represent the NC Region at the OFSAA Cross Country Running Championships in Dundas ON the first Saturday in November.   The NC has, in recent years, had outstanding performances at OFSAA and been considered one of the “toughest regions in Ontario” for XC.  This year’s crop of athletes looks to continue the trend.  So, who will make it to the Big O-Show?  Here is this year’s NC Preview.

Midget Girls

Colonel By has lead the charge all season with a big win at East and capturing the Gryphon Open, their only other meet this season.  The Cougars should have a low score up front with their top runner, Saravanamuttoo, and then pack their next three fairly tightly (40 seconds) about a minute back.   The closest challenge to the Cougars will likely come from West Champs Paul Desmarias and Glebe, who came within 11 points of the Cougars at the Gryphon Open.  The Patriotes won their only other showing of the fall, beating all the Junior teams as well at the Rebelles Invitational.  West Carleton has a great front running duo (Munro and McCulligh) and could threaten with strong runs from their back two, as well as East Runner Up Immaculata, if they can get a big run from their #4 Orbay.

Individually it looks to be a battle between East Champ May (Immaculata), MacDonald (Glebe) and Hageltorn (Paul Desmarais).  May has only run once this season but had a comfortable win at East, breaking away over the second half from Porter (Franco Cite) and Saravanamuttoo.  MacDonald has had a successful fall, with a bronze at Trinity, 4^th at pre-OFSAA and two big victories here in Ottawa at the Gryphon Open and the Capital Challenge, beating all the Juniors enroute.  Hageltorn (Paul Desmarais) has won both her outings this fall capturing the Rebelles Invite (and besting all Juniors there as well)  and the West Champs.  With one of these three likely on a qualifying team that leaves three remaining spots on the OFSAA start line which will likely go to Murchison (Mother Teresa), Honnegar (AY Jackson), Porter (Franco Cite) with Klotz (Elmwood) and Ivay (John McCrae) on the outside looking to steal a spot.

NC Blogger’s Picks

Teams – 1. Colonel By 48,   2. Paul Desmarais 64, 3. Glebe 72.

Individual – 1. MacDonald (Glebe), 2. May (Immaculata), 3. Hageltorn (Paul Desmarais)

Midget Boys

This is a race with no clear cut favorite and will certainly come down to who can get the biggest run from their 4^th and final scorer.  South Carleton and Sir Robert Borden both have great one-two punches with Donovan and Neidre and West Champ Porter and Bertals respectively.  South will need strong runs from Jessiman and Covey (who was almost 2 minutes back) at West if they hope to win. Likewise, Borden has a big gap back to #4 Murray which they need to tighten up to improve their chances.  East Champs Colonel By pack all four scorers within a minute, while Glebe has had a strong consistent front 3, Waddington, Fairhead and Veysey, with 10 more vying for the fourth spot, but consistency has been a problem from their fourth runner.  Nepean also played it sleepy at the Conference Meet with several of their runners well back, despite beating West Champs South Carleton earlier in the season.

Yannick Meredith (De La Salle) has only toed the line once this fall but looked effortless in posting a large 40 second victory at the East Meet.  The West gave us a completely different look with a much more tightly bunched pack up front giving Porter a chance to demonstrate great finishing speed as he out legged Donovan to the line.  It will certainly be interesting to see if these boys try to stick with Meredith’s early pace, or if Meredith will be content to let them lead and show off his outstanding speed.  With the team dynamic up in the air, it might require a top 5 finish to lock up one of the individual qualifying spots.  Niedre, Fernandez (Paul Desmarais), Trudel (Beatrice Desloges) and Woodford (Nepean) all in serious contention for a top 5 finish.  

NC Blogger’s Picks

Teams - 1.  Glebe – 66, 2. Nepean – 72, 3. South Carleton – 74

Individuals – 1. Meredith (De La Salle), 2. Porter (Borden), 3. Donovan (South Carleton)

Junior Girls

The Glebe Junior Girls are the defending OFSAA Champions and have shown their depth and strength all season winning the Trinity Invite, the Gryphon Open, the Capital Challenge and the East title in convincing fashion.  Nepean, runner up to Glebe last year look to be strong enough to hold on to the second qualifying spot, but after that, things get really tight.  Mother Teresa, Longfields, Ashbury and Garneau all had similar scores at their Conference Meets.  Ashbury is led by defending MG Champion Stevens, but there is a huge gap back to their third and fourth scorer.  Actually there is normally a large gap between Stevens and most of the field.  Mother Teresa has the best front two in Tyman and Dasilva (3^rd and 4^th at West) but will need a much improved run from their fourth scorer if they hope to repeat their bronze medal performance from 2017.

Look for an East sweep in the individual results, with Stevens and Bialowas (Glebe) looking to repeat their 1-2 finish from a year ago.  Heffernan-Wilker (Glebe) is the only NC runner to best Bialowas this season early in the season at the Trinity Invitational, but she was bested at the Capital Challenge by Nepean’s Gruson and Lawson.  Glebe’s Gardiner, who has shown steady improvement all season and was the 2^nd best NC finisher at OFSAA last year placing 21^st, also looks to be in the mix.  With 5 of these 6 likely to be on qualifying teams, a top 10 finish should be more than enough to secure a spot on the line in Dundas.  West Champ Elle (South Carleton), Semeniuk (St. Pius), Tyman (Mother Teresa) and Wojtyk (Lisgar) look to be in the best position to grab those spots.

NC Blogger’s Picks

Teams - 1. Glebe 21, 2. Nepean 41, 3. Mother Teresa 92

Individuals – 1. Bialowas (Glebe), 2. Stevens (Ashbury), 3. Heffernan-Wilker (Glebe)

Junior Boys

Glebe’s Junior Boys are OFSAA medalists, picking up silver in 2017 and they been dominant all season, winning Trinity, Gryphon, and the Capital Challenge.  Expect Glebe to repeat their performance from 2017, placing all their scorers, and perhaps a 5^th runner in the top 10 at NC’s.  Last year’s runner up Sir Robert Borden, lost a big piece of the puzzle with the transfer of Sjolund.  This has opened the door for John McCrae who has been led by a much improved Ryan May, whose twin brother Owen book ends the team as their fourth runner.  Merivale, East Champs De La Salle, and West Carleton should challenge for the third spot in a tightly contested battle.   

After placing 10^th at NC’s last year, being the 3^rd runner not on a qualifying team, yet not qualifying for OFSAA because he was the 6^th runner on the Glebe squad, Seb Cino has worked hard all season and has become the front runner for the Gryphon’s this season, kicking off the season with a win at the Trinity Invitational in Port Hope.   Ashbury’s Luke Allan, third last year has been able to find another gear in his races this past year, usually putting in a surge with just over a kilometer to go that no one has been able to match and heads to the NC Meet as favorite.  Defending Champion Porter (Sir Robert Borden) won the Rebelles Invite and used a strong finish to capture the West to justify his name being thrown in the hat for the individual title as well.  With a host of Gryphon’s and May likely near the front, once again a top 10 finish could prove to be enough for an entry to OFSAA.  Fillion (Louis Riel), Alvarez (Franco Ouest), Robichaud (Garneau), Hayden (Merivale) and McLarnon (Woodroffe) will duke it out for the remaining three spots. 

NC Blogger’s Picks

Teams – 1. Glebe 24, 2. John McCrae 78, 3. De La Salle 101

Individuals – 1. Allan (Ashbury), 2. Porter (Sir Robert Borden), 3. Cino (Glebe)

Senior Girls

The Glebe Senior Girls look to make it 5 consecutive years winning the NC title and have the top individual talent and the depth to head to the 2018 Championships as heavy favorites.  Led by individual favorite Rosalyn Barrett, expect the Gryphons to place all four scorers in the top 15.  For the past three years it has been All Saints that has chased this Gryphon squad to the line, finishing in the runner up position in 2015, 16 and 17 and hope to do the same this year.  Last year’s Junior Girls Champs Lisgar are led by 2018 OFSAA 3000m Gold medalist Emma Betty and then a tightly bunched Rhea, Smith and McKenzie, while All Saints has a strong 1-2 punch in Shields and Reid.  All Saints’ aspiration lie with their fourth, which has changed throughout the season, who holds the fate of her team at her feet.  If she can stay close to McKenzie, All Saints should carry the day.

Barrett has had a strong season winning the Turkey Trot and Capital Challenge, along with a third place finish at the Trinity Invite in Port Hope.  Her closest pursuer all season has been St. Francis Xavier’s Skye Pellerin.  Olivia MacAskill (Earl of March), East Champ Katie Newlove (St. Peter), Betty and Shapansky (Glebe) will battle for the bronze.   Depending on the fate of Betty’s teammates, this may leave only one more spot available for individual qualification which will be a tight battle between Roy (Louis Riel) and Bolduc (Beatrice Desloges) who finished less than a second apart at East.  Both girls will likely be rooting for Lisgar to take the second spot to remove Betty from the individual equation!

NC Blogger’s Picks

Team – 1. Glebe 33, 2. All Saints 75, 3. Lisgar 80

Individual – 1. Barrett (Glebe), 2. Pellerin (St. FX), 3. Newlove (St. Peter)

Senior Boys

The Seniors are usually a little easier to predict.  We’ve had four years to watch them develop and view how their teams have progressed. Both Ridgemont and Glebe have been shown to have similar teams.  Both teams were fourth as Juniors at OFSAA (Ridgemont in ’17, Glebe in ’16).  Both have a front runner capable of winning (Joe Fast is the defending OFSAA Champion, while Adam Sanger was 8^th in Petawawa).  In their only meeting this season, Glebe came away with a 32-40 victory at the Capital Challenge.  Glebe’s strength lie in a much improved Saravanamuttoo and Pensom, both whom finished ahead of Omar Ali  and Luqman by a healthy margin at the Capital Challenge.  The Spartans need to narrow that gap considerably, and look to get space between their #4 (who could be one of any number of guys) and Glebe’s Lane or Mitchell, the former who out legged Ridgemont’s Taleb at Mooney’s Bay.  Only Colonel By can come even remotely close to unseating one of these two teams, with their top man Cox vying for the podium followed by Jones, but their problem is the gap back to their #3 amd #4 (Wang and Monteith-Pistor).  That gap has to close and they’ll still need help as Ridgemont or Glebe will have to stumble if the Cougars hope pounce and nab a top two spot. 

Mirroring the team competition, this race comes down to a Gryphon vs. a Spartan with a Cougar (and a Bruin) running after them.  Sanger and Fast should be upfront with East Champ Cox and West Champ Robertson running for the third podium spot.  After that we can expect Frost (AY Jackson), Roy (Longfields), Saravanamutto and Pensom, leaving one more spot at the Big Dance, which should go to De La Salle’s Meredith, although Woodford (Nepean) and Tareke (Immaculata) will be waiting in the wings should someone have an off day.

NC Blogger’s Picks

Team – 1. Glebe 45, 2. Ridgemont – 54, 3. Colonel By – 87

Individuals – 1. Sanger (Glebe), 2. Fast (Ridgemont), 3. Cox (Colonel By)