Well, not much going on this year, so it will be difficult to predict what might happen at the NC Meet, but we'll give it a shot!
The Conference Meets wrapped up showcasing some new talent, as both Novice and Junior runners had not had a chance to strut their stuff at the High School level over the past two years, so lots of new faces to enjoy. It was also obvious that some talented athletes spent time during the pandemic to log some miles and get ready. Look for some new faces to figure prominently in the Senior races as well.
Nepean and Glebe had very strong showings at their respective Conference Meets, winning 4 races, with Nepean sweeping the Girl's races at the West, along with the Senior Boys, while Glebe captured the Junior & Senior Girl's and Boy's titles in the East. Look for them to butt heads for the Overall Aggregate on the 28th over the trails of Green's Creek.
Novice Girls
Usually the Novice runners are the most unpredictable, but this year's Novice girls may be an exception. Chiumera (St. Pius) and Streek (Merivale), perhaps the most aptly named runner since Ridgemont's Joe Fast, are clearly the class of the field. Chiumera has had a comfortable margin of victory over their two battles this fall and will toe the line as the clear favorite. East Champ Lyons (Glebe) had a strong showing against West bronze medalist McDonnell in their only head to head meeting this fall, but both were well back of the favoured Chiumera.
Nepean looks to be the class of the field, capturing the West with a comfortable 20 point margin over Merivale. Nepean packed 6 runners within a minute at West, while Streek and Chen gave Merivale two low sticks to keep them in the hunt. They will need a big run from their back end, who finished almost 2 minutes behind Nepean's 6th if they hope to pull off an upset. East Champs Colonel By have too large a gap to seriously challenge either of these two, but, they are Novice runners, so anything can happen. South Carleton's tight grouping might be enough to nab the final spot from the Cougars for a West sweep of the team podium.
NC Blogger's Picks:
1. Chiumera (St. Pius), 2. Streek (Merivale), 3, Lyons (Glebe)
1. Nepean (72), 2. Merivale (96), 3. Colonel By (111)
Junior Girls
The West featured a tight battle between four girls, Delaney (St. FX), Hegan (Nepean), Pascali (Nepean) and Sarai (West Carleton) that all finished within 8 seconds of each other, while East Champ Alexander (Glebe) had a comfortable 30 second margin of victory over teammate Waddington, but outside that, these girls have not faced each other this season, so there is much left to guesswork here.
Nepean packed four scores within 90 seconds at West and Glebe swept the podium in the East with a similar 1 - 4 gap. Glebe's #4, Audet-Wilke had a comfortable victory over Nepean's #4 in their only head to head meeting this fall, the Capital XC Challenge and will need to keep that gap and more if Glebe hopes to prevail. It might come down to who has the higher fourth place finisher, in which case Glebe may get the nod.
NC Blogger's picks:
1. Alexander (Glebe), 2. Delaney (St. FX), Hegan (Nepean)
1. Glebe (35), 1. Nepean (35), 3. Ashbury (125)
Senior Girls
A lot has changed since the break in XC due to the pandemic at the Senior level. Several strong runners graduated without a chance to show what they could do in their final year and a few Junior and Novice runners have put in some excellent work to improve their game heading into their Senior season.
Van Brabant (Earl of March) has been dominant in her two outings this fall, capturing the West title by almost two full minutes over 6k, and the Capital XC Challenge by a minute over the shorter 5k distance. Fellow first year Senior and newcomer to the XC scene, Baggley (Gloucester) also had a convincing victory in the East over a much improved Vroom (Sir Wilfrid Laurier), who had placed 6th in the Junior race back in 2019. The other contender looking to mix things up missed the Conference Champs but looks to be back in form for the NC Meet. Never to be counted out, Glebe's MacDonald can produce in the big races when it matters most. The 2018 OFSAA silver medalist will look to put in a strong showing on the 28th.
Glebe has held the Senior Girl's Title since 2013 and it does not appear that they are ready to relinquish the crown. They have the upfront talent in MacDonald to counter Nepean's Hegan and then look to get their next three, 2019 Novice Champ Gormley, Hurst and Bennett in before Nepean's 3rd, West, and possibly before their #2 Gruson. After that things get really interesting. Both Colonel By and Franco Cite tied for 2nd at East, while Merivale was not far behind Nepean in the West.
NC Blogger's picks:
1. Van Brabant (Earl of March), 2. Baggley (Gloucester), 3. Hegan (Nepean)
1. Glebe (34), 2. Nepean (61), 3. Merivale (101)
Novice Boys
Cova (Louis Riel) was the top Novice finisher at the Capital XC Challenge, running against the Junior Boys, and he finished comfortably ahead of West bronze medalist Daniels (Nepean). Daniels however was well behind West Champ and runner-up Sankey (Merivale) and Adamson (Earl of March). Cova had a comfortable victory in the East and knows the terrain, running on Louis' home course which might help him in his quest for gold.
Next to the Junior Girls, the team battle in this race will likely be the tightest, with both Merivale and Immaculata running to solid victories in their respective Conference Championships. Immaculata put all four scorers in the top 7 at East with only a 57 second gap between them. Merivale will likely have three scorers in before Mac's #2, but their fourth (Tong) may be well over a minute back, which may open the door for Mac if he struggles. The only team with a remote chance of unseating either of these teams is the home team, Louis Riel. They will likely be even with Mac after three runners, but need a huge improvement from their #4 Domiati, if they hope to play spoiler.
NC Blogger's picks:
1. Sankey (Merivale), 2. Adamson (Earl of March), 3. Cova (Louis Riel)
1. Merivale (42), 2. Immaculata (45), Louis Riel (70)
Junior Boys
West Champ Sanders (Mother Teresa) was the top NC individual at the Capital XC Challenge, but was only trailed to the line by East runner-up Melinz Dupuis (Glebe) by 14 seconds. East Champ Strachan (Glebe) bested his teammate by just over 20 seconds at Green's Creek over the slightly longer, more challenging course, so the battle between the two Conference Champs could prove very tight. These three boys should be able to secure a podium spot, with the only outside threat coming from Woodroffe's Mohamud.
The Glebe Junior Boys put 6 in the top 12 at East and ran to a very comfortable victory, amassing a paltry 13 points. West Champs Mother Teresa have a great 1-2 punch in Sanders and Grant, but a full three minute gap back to #3 and #4 will likely be too much to overcome. The battle for them will likely be for the second podium spot with East runner up Lisgar. While Lisgar only has a single low stick in Krnjevic, they will likely score all four before Mother Teresa's #3. Mother Teresa's back end needs to make sure that gap stays small if they hope to finish second.
NC Blogger's picks:
1. Strachan (Glebe), Sanders (Mother Teresa), 3. Melinz Dupuis (Glebe)
1. Glebe (30), 2. Lisgar (105), 3. Mother Teresa (112)
Senior Boys
Sikka (St. Paul) was the West Champ and the top NC finisher at the Capital XC Challenge and heads to Green's Creek as a solid favorite. Legare (John McCrae) was bested by East runner-up Fairhead (Glebe) at the Capital XC Challenge, but beat East Champ Waddington (Glebe) in the same race. Legare had made a bold move, pushing the pace early in the race and it came back to haunt him. Don't expect him to make the same mistake at the NC Meet. Just over 15 seconds back of Sikka at the West, Legare has been his closest pursuer and looks to have a safe hold on the second podium spot. West Bronze Medalist Del Rio Reategui (St. Joseph) will likely battle Waddington and Fairhead for the bronze.
Like their female counterparts, the Glebe Senior Boys have enjoyed a long string of success, finishing on top of the podium 9 times in the past 10 years. In 2012, Glebe shared the top spot with Nepean, but lost on the tie-breaker (they higher fourth place finisher). They once again have the upfront talent in Waddington and Fairhead, along with a much improved Barrett (4th at East) and Strachan not far behind. Look for Glebe to put three in the top 10 and all four scorers in the top 15 to run to a comfortable victory. Nepean may have been downplaying their strength at Conference, with there back 3 all crossing the line together mid-pack at West. If they've got more in the tank, they could make it closer, but with Glebe likely packing three in front of Nepean's top finisher from the West, Mason, it will likely be too big a gap to overcome. Either way, Nepean should have enough to stay comfortably ahead of East runner up Ridgemont.
NC Blogger's picks:
1. Sikka (St. Paul), 2. Legare (John McCrae), 3. Waddington (Glebe)
1. Glebe (29), 2. Nepean (95), 3. Ridgemont (151)
Best of luck to all athletes competing at the Hornet's Nest / Green's Creek next week. We look forward to some great competition.
